Tuesday, October 24, 2006

FWIW - this race is a squeaker, but the elephants win.

Some basic points, which I won't elaborate on:
  • Current races are based on geographic demographics. More people are leaving the cities and becoming more independent - so they vote more Republican than Democrat.
  • The main-stream media (which are Democrat supporters and bound to only tell the controversial) don't realize that most of their viewing public has caught onto their scam - and, with the multiplicity of channels and the Internet, no longer are locked into the mindset the MSM pummels out on a daily basis.
  • The more the MSM push Democratic talking points, the more Republican voters are energized to vote. So the more media, the more backlash. Readers/viewers have wised up. The MSM haven't.
  • Currently, Republicans are backed up with Rowe's very accurate long tail niche marketing, which spreads targeted messages to those who want them (people choose messages which support their own worldviews). Means unless someone changes their worldview, they will vot for people who are just like them - or people they want to emulate.
  • An effective ground-game (probably based on the same niche marketing) has been turning out more voters than older methods (such as busing the poor and union workers).
  • Whoever rules the center gets more votes, since the Bell Curve applies - fewer exist on the extremes. People really vote neither Democrat or Republican, since these are both extremes. Current politicians in the Republican party own the center. Democrats are currently being undermined by extreme leftists.
So, the Republicans win this next election, and several after that. However, they have to stay nimble for many cycles, since the above factors won't lose their potency. (Means Congress will be closely split during these cycles, neither side gaining or losing many seats, barring another cataclysmic world-wide event such as FDR inherited.) Current ruling of the Congress is dependent on the war, which will continue several decades, unless Iran and North Korea off themselves.)

Strategy for Democrats? Regain the center (difficult with the extremists in control). Best would be to form a third, moderate party, but neither mainstream political party will do this - and other existing parties are too extremist (only the Libertarians could possibly pull that off, but their entrenched positions won't allow this currently).

Possible outcome? Iran pushes the whole world scene over into a mess no one wants to see (which is why so many eyes have been closed). People come together to solve that mess and the whole bell curve shifts dramatically.

Another outcome is that a truly charismatic leader arises in the West, one who factually knows something and can get something happening which motivates people TO DO GOOD.

Like I said - FWIW.

- - - -
update: 11/18

And so I eat those words. Now we have a Pelosi congress with San Fran values. Hope the Senate (useless as it has been) stays deadlocked. Then the Republicans will have to really check their values while the Dems defeat themselves for the '08 election. And we in Missouri have another partisan hack as senator - Gawd.

Lesson - stay ouf of horse races and politics. Philosophy is more calming.

I can tell you this - the Dems have just wakened a sleeping giant - or will shortly. Looks like two years of real problems coming up, with vetoes, dropped funding for the military and similar messes coming up.

The Republicans have to now get back to basics - low taxes and smaller (much smaller) government. The bloom is off the rose.
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